Why RuneScape Has Lost Over Half of its Players: An Analysis of RS3
Image Credit: Jagex
Since the release of Old School RuneScape (OSRS) in 2013, RuneScape 3 (RS3), the original game that has been updated through the modern era, has been on a downward trend, having now lost over 57% of its player base, with an average of 46,403 concurrent players in 2013 down to an average of just 18,305 concurrent players earlier this year. While many factors contribute to this steep decline, certain key decisions by Jagex (the developers) over the years have left lasting impacts on RS3’s popularity. This player population graph shows the steady decrease in RS3’s player population, while OSRS continues to flourish having over 130,000 concurrent players on average this quarter. This begs the question: what has caused RS3 to struggle so much, and what does it mean for the game’s future?
Let us start by going back to 2008 when Jagex made one of the most questionable decisions in RuneScape’s history by removing free trade and introducing trade limits for all players. This move was aimed at curbing real-world trading (RWT) and botting which was admittedly quite a big problem at the time. The removal of free trade meant that players could no longer freely trade items and gold without restrictions, forcing items traded between players to be of equal value, and this alienated a significant portion of the player base. Many players felt that this broke the essence of RuneScape's economy, as trading, even with your own friends, and merchanting (or “merching”) were important and engaging gameplay elements for a lot of users.
Although the intent was to protect the game’s integrity, the backlash was overwhelming and had long-lasting ramifications. After significant community outcry and a player poll in 2011 in which over a million players voted with 91% saying “yes” to bring back free trade and the Wilderness (a full-loot PvP zone), Jagex eventually reversed the decision, restoring free trade and allowing the return of the unrestricted player-driven economy.
However, not even a year later, we are met with yet another controversial decision by Jagex…
Image Credit: Jagex
It is often cited, and for good reason, that the major turning point for RuneScape 3 was the introduction of the Evolution of Combat (EOC) update in late 2012. Designed to modernize the combat system with ability bars and action-based gameplay similar to other MMOs like World of Warcraft, the EOC was intended to appeal to newer players and align RS3 with more contemporary MMOs. However, the reception from the existing player base was overwhelmingly negative. Many long-time RuneScape players felt that the introduction of EOC fundamentally changed the core of the game, breaking away from the traditional, simple combat system that had defined an incredibly unique RuneScape experience.
The backlash was so severe that it laid the groundwork for the creation of OSRS, which brought back the 2007 version of RuneScape, free from EOC and any of the many controversial changes that followed. This decision, while popular for those who missed the “old days,” marked the beginning of RS3’s population decline. As players flocked to OSRS for nostalgia and an “untainted” RuneScape experience, RS3 struggled to retain its footing and the player count steadily dropped.
Image Credit: Jagex
Not long before the introduction of EOC, Jagex began to experiment with microtransactions (MTX) in RS3. The first iteration was Squeal of Fortune, introduced in February of 2012, a lottery-like mechanic that allowed players to buy spins for real money in exchange for rare items. This was later rebranded into Treasure Hunter, which introduced more loot box-style mechanics that drew criticism for their pay-to-win elements. Additionally, Solomon's General Store allowed players to purchase cosmetic items (or even basic things like extra bank space), Bonds were introduced as a way to pay for membership with in-game money or sell after purchase for in-game gold, and the introduction of RuneMetrics let players buy premium data-tracking features which arguably should be included in the game for everyone by default.
These microtransactions have been widely criticized by the community and called out as predatory, with Treasure Hunter promotion after promotion being implimented to induce FOMO and heavily encourage players to spend real money on a regular basis. As more and more MTX features were added to RS3 in a slippery slope kind of fashion, many players felt that the game was shifting towards a “pay-to-win” model. In 2016, the player named ‘A Friend’ spent $13,300 to max an RS3 account and gain billions of gold immediately upon creation using nothing but Treasure Hunter. This problem is something OSRS has largely avoided thus far, as Bonds are their only form of microtransaction. OSRS’s rejection of microtransactions has been a major reason for its continued success, as it offers a more grind-based and fair experience without the need to purchase keys or additional features outside of a basic membership.
The Hero Pass scandal just last year in 2023 dealt another blow to RS3's reputation. The Hero Pass, designed as a premium seasonal battle-pass-esque system offering rewards and exclusive cosmetics, drew significant ire from players who felt that the implementation was rushed, unfair, and yet more microtransactions shoved down the throat of the playerbase. Players criticized Jagex for locking desirable content behind paywalls, furthering the perception that the game was increasingly becoming driven by MTX rather than quality-based updates.
After considerable backlash, Jagex promised to adjust the system, but the damage was already done. This scandal, paired with years of frustrations over MTX and questionable updates, shook the community’s confidence in the company. On the other side of the pond OSRS, meanwhile, had its 2nd highest average concurrent player count of over 137,000 in Q4 of 2023.
While OSRS has seen consistent and well-received updates, RS3 has struggled to keep up. Many in the community feel that RS3’s updates over the past several years have been lackluster, with a lack of meaningful content that can compete with OSRS’s frequent and poll-based updates (in which votes with a yes option require a supermajority of 70% or more to pass).
Image Credit: Jagex
To give an example, the introduction of Necromancy as a new skill in RuneScape 3 brought an initial excitement to the community quickly followed and overshadowed by frustration. While the concept of the first new combat-based skill in the game’s history was awaited with anticipation and did bring with it some genuinely cool and fun mechanics, the implementation came with several issues that left players with a rotten taste in their mouth. One of the main concerns was how overpowered the skill was compared to other combat styles, leading to an imbalance in PvM (Player vs. Monster) content and a market crash of virtually all other high-level gear for ranged, melee, and magic combat styles seemingly over night. Many players felt that the introduction of Necromancy diminished the importance of other combat styles, with new records quickly and easily obtained for boss kill times with, you guessed it, the necromancy combat style.
In another recent development, Jagex announced a membership price increase for both RS3 and OSRS starting in late September 2024, raising the cost to $13.99. This price hike has sparked controversy among the remaining RS3 players, many of whom feel that the game is no longer delivering the value that justifies a higher cost. With the player base shrinking, some question whether this move could alienate even more players at a time when the game can’t afford to lose many more. It is also worth noting that you must pay the full membership price for a single character, unlike many other popular MMOs where you can make multiple characters with only one subscription.
Image Credit: Jagex
Now the big question that we are left is as follows: What is the future of RuneScape 3?
With RS3’s player population down so drastically over the past decade, the future of RuneScape 3 is uncertain and cannot easily be predicted. Will RuneScape 3 last another 10 years? Only time, and the decisions that Jagex makes, will tell. The game still retains a dedicated, albeit shrinking, fanbase that enjoys the relatively modernized mechanics and rich lore that RS3 offers. However, for Jagex, the real challenge lies in finding ways to regain the trust of its community while also attracting new players to RS3 which has been proven to be easier said than done given that trust in the company is incredibly low.
The membership price increase nearing the levels of World of Warcraft and continued reliance on microtransactions pose a significant risk to RS3’s future growth and overall health as a long-lasting game. If Jagex hopes to see RS3 recover and stop the bleeding, they’ll need to address the core issues plaguing the game, from fixing their predatory monetization model to delivering high-quality, player-driven updates. A reassessment of MTX, coupled with content that rivals OSRS in both quality and consistency, could help RS3 not only survive but thrive given that the game is actually quite good if you can look past some of these problems.
However, if these efforts fail or complaints from a passionate and truly caring community continue to fall upon deaf ears, RS3 risks becoming a niche game, unable to compete with its nostalgic counterpart, which then in turns threatens OSRS and the updates that they receive in terms of staffing numbers, budget allocation, and the threat of MTX being thrust upon them as well as the last resort from a company in desperate need, although at this point I think it is clear that OSRS could survive without RS3, but hope that we never have to reach that point.
The choices Jagex makes in the coming years will ultimately determine whether RuneScape 3 can recover or fade into obscurity.
